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Home arrow Issues/Politics arrow Missouri and Illinois will become more green -- incrementally
Missouri and Illinois will become more green -- incrementally Print E-mail
By Repps Hudson, Special to the Beacon   

Posted 2:40 p.m. Wed., Jan. 14 - The good news about the future energy profiles of Missouri and Illinois is that both are going to become perceptibly greener over the next couple of decades.

For the most part, the changes will be incremental, not dramatic. But they will add up to more efficiency in the use of electricity, the primary source of energy for residential, commercial and industrial users.

State laws require the energy mix to become increasingly based on renewable sources such as wind. For instance, an Illinois law signed by Gov. Rod Blogojevich in August 2007 requires utilities to reduce overall electric usage by 2 percent by 2015.

"Every issue has its time," said Howard Learner, executive director of the Environmental Law and Policy Center in Chicago .

Considering that the normal growth rate for electricity use runs around 2 percent to 3 percent a year, that will add up to quite a change in the daily electricity consumption patterns of residents and businesses.

To put it another way, in Missouri, the average yearly increase in consumption has been 2.6 percent, said Warren Wood of the Missouri Energy Development Association  , which represents the three investor-owned electric utilities based in the state -- AmerenUE , Kansas City Power and Light Co. and Empire District Electric Co.  -- among others.

"In the future, we'll see growth of one-half percent or less a year," said Wood, a former analyst with the Missouri Public Service Commission. "That will be because of increased efficiency.

Another change coming in Missouri will result from Proposition C, which was passed overwhelmingly by voters in November. It requires that the state's investor-owned utilities purchase or generate for their own use 15 percent of their power from renewable sources by 2021.

As it turns out, efficiency in operating energy-producing equipment, whether nuclear power plants, coal-fired electricity-generating plants or gas-fired power plants, will cumulatively give both states a much-improved profile in the years ahead.

Even federal regulations for appliances - the Energy Star labels and those yellow tags that show how much energy a water heater will require in one year - help consumers make more intelligent decisions about energy-using appliances.

nuclear 

"Over the last decade, in the United States, we have increased the amount of power produced by 20 nuclear plants by making them more efficient - like new turbine blades," Wood said.

Missouri has one nuclear plant, the 1,137-megawatt Callaway unit southeast of Fulton owned by AmerenUE.

The utility has said it will decide by 2011 whether to build a 1,600-megawatt nuclear reactor on the Callaway site. It has already spent $50 million to begin the application process. A major issue will be whether AmerenUE will be able to cover the cost of constructing the $6 billion plant by charging its customers.

At present, Missouri law forbids a utility from using the "construction work in progress" method for paying for a plant. One estimate is that the utility could save ratepayers $5 billion by having AmerenUE's shareholders pay the construction cost.

The Missouri Legislature ultimately will decide whether to repeal the consumer-protection law voters approved in 1976 that prevents utilities from shifting the cost of construction onto their customers until a newly constructed plant is operating.

Illinois has six nuclear plants , with 11 reactors, the largest inventory of any state, with a net generating capacity of 11,379 megawatts. These plants generate one-half of Illinois' power and one-tenth of the U.S. nuclear output. Another three reactors have been decommissioned.

Electric cars 

But there could be bad news on the electric energy front too, and it's compounded by the kind of vehicles we may be driving in the next 10 to 20 years.

Consider the impact on demand for electricity of a large-scale shift from vehicles that run on gasoline or diesel to vehicles that run on electric batteries.

If General Motors is successful with the rollout of its all-electric Volt next year and plug-in vehicles start showing up in large numbers, as expected in the next decade, that will create a new, strong demand for even more electricity.

AmerenUE, for instance, says on its website that it expects demand for electric power by its customers to increase 30 percent over the next 20 years.

How will that square with other projections that overall state demand will barely rise - or must fall?

In truth, no one really knows how much demand for electric power will increase and which factors - efficiency, government mandates, population growth and so on - predominate as things shake out over the next several decades.

But clearly, new electric cars could exert an unknown influence.

"If the cars are 220 volt and require a three-hour charge, there could be a big spike in electricity demand in the late afternoon or early evening when people come home and plug in their cars," Wood said. "If the cars could be low voltage and be charged over eight hours overnight, the consumption profile looks like an appliance."

coal 

In Missouri  and Illinois , coal provides about 80 percent of all consumers' electricity needs. For Missouri, add the Callaway nuclear plant and gas-fired units for a total of 96 percent based on fossil and nuclear fuels

Power plants may be expanded, like KCPL's building of the 850-megawatt Iatan 2 coal-fired unit in Platte County north of Kansas City. It will be state-of-the-art in its efficiency and harmful emissions controls. The smaller Iatan 1 unit is being retrofitted with updated pollution controls under a complex agreement with the PSC, environmental organizations and civic groups that could be a model for future plant expansions and retrofits.

"The sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide from the two plants will be less than was coming out of Iatan 1 before it was retrofitted," said Dan Beck, a PSC staff analyst.

As for carbon dioxide, he said, "there will be some improvement for Iatan 2 and the retrofitted Iatan 1 unit."

A so-called next-generation, hybrid integrated gasification combined-cycle coal-fired 500-megawatt plant to be built near Taylorville, Ill., at a cost of $3.5 billion also will include sophisticated pollution mitigating measures. That plant is expected to be completed in 2014 and will convert coal to methane to be burned to generate electricity.

The developers, who will sell power to Ameren and other utilities as required by Illinois law, say the plant will capture 55 percent to 60 percent of the carbon dioxide emitted and either inject it into underground rock formations or ship by pipeline to the Gulf of Mexico to use in oil recovery.

But not all coal-fired plants in the two states will be able to eliminate harmful, greenhouse gas-causing carbon dioxide emissions.

"Maybe some older coal plants will be shut down," said Learner, of the Environmental Law and Policy Center.

The utilities and investors who own them aren't even sure under what regime they will be operating over the next few years - and that is a crucial thing to know. As far as potential investors are concerned, much is up in the air today.

"Carbon regulation is one of the greatest risk factors" for utilities," said Wood.

He was referring to how Congress and the incoming Obama administration will regulate carbon emissions. Will it be by the cap-and-trade system used to reduce emissions that cause acid rain? Will it be by regulation, where the cost of compliance is harder for utilities to offset?

And will carbon sequestration - burying it in the ground or capturing it for later use - become the predominant means of reducing carbon in the atmosphere?

So many variables are in play.

"Historically, when we have looked at emission-compliance costs, we have looked at the cost of the fuel," Wood said. "And quite often, natural gas has been the cheapest fuel. But with the increased demand for natural gas (for peaking plants), building anything has been much more costly to construct."

Utilities often use a process called integrated resource planning to try to figure out the best combination of fuels, emission controls and other factors to decide what kind of plant to build.

Today, with rising fuel costs, unpredictable emissions regulations ahead and other unknowns, the risks of preparing for future energy demand are as challenging as any time in memory.

For instance, Beck said, "controlling carbon dioxide will be huge."

This is part two of a series on renewable energy. Read the first installment here .

Repps Hudson is a freelance writer. To reach him, contact Beacon features and commentary editor Donna Korando.

 

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